Csdrhrt

Over the past several years, many in the US (government and mainstream media) have argued that the Russian government ("The Russians") interfered with the 2016 US elections through the "Internet Research Agency" - a sort of a social media campaigning company / troll farm. It ran some some small-scale campaigns before, during and after the US 2016 elections, with some content supportive of Trump (although to be honest some of those pro-Trump images seem ridiculous enough to have the opposite effect), some critical of Trump, content in support of or against other causes, including the promotion of events or rallies, etc. Some of this happened before the elections, some after; I've even heard the claim that most effort or money was spent after the elections but I may be wrong on this. At least once they even organized opposing rallies. (see this piece for some examples of IRA-originated memes). The total amount of money they spent in 2016 on promoting such content is said to have been $100,000.

When I initially heard about this, I was unconvinced that this a Russian government effort to destabilize the US or to swing the US elections. The amount of money is minuscule (relative to campaigns' media budget), the timing of its spending is off, and subjectively it didn't even seem to me to be a serious effort to get people to support Trump (sometimes more like the opposite). As a lay user, I found this looked more like glorified trolling than international political interference. Several critics (in alternative media mostly) have also expressed such skepticism.

Now that the (redacted version of) Mueller report is out - is there any newly-revealed evidence to support the characterization of these IRA activities as Russian government interference in the US elections? And - what is the new evidence?

Notes:

• I mean evidence - not estimates, conclusions, non-testimony assertions ("XYZ happened") etc.


• On that note - statements of fact in the report which have no source, or whose source supposedly exists but is redacted - are not evidence revealed by the redacted report. My question is about evidence revealed in this release.


• Circumstantial evidence counts as evidence.


• There is this annoying use of the term "The Russians" to conflate people living in Russia, Russian companies, Russian business owners and the Russian government, all together. I'm specifically asking about the Russian government.

Probably

First, the report was heavily redacted. As such, some information is missing. Further, much of the information available in the Mueller report was previously available, so I won't try to determine which information is new, but rather summarize the evidence in the report.

• 
  

  Was there a group based in Russia conducting social media operations?

  
  
  

  Yes. As mentioned in the question, that group is the IRA, the Internet Research Agency. From the report:

  
  
  

  
  

  The first form of Russian election influence came principally from the
  Internet Research Agency, LLC (IRA), a Russian organization funded by
  Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin and companies he controlled, including
  Concord Management and Consulting LLC and Concord Catering
  (collectively "Concord"). The IRA conducted social media operations
  targeted at large U.S. audiences with the goal of sowing discord in
  the U.S. political system. These operations constituted "active
  measures" (aKTMBHbie Meporrprumu), a term that typically refers to
  operations conducted by Russian security services aimed at influencing
  the course of international affairs.

  
  

  
  


• 
  

  Was this group trying to influence elections in the US?

  
  
  

  Yes. Seemingly they said that explicitly:

  
  
  

  
  

  IRA employees also acknowledged that their work focused on influencing
  the US presidential election.

  
  

  
  
  

  Although the section surrounding this is entirely redacted, I presume that it includes a quote from internal IRA documents admitting this.

  
  
  

  They also focused on US users:

  
  
  

  
  

  To reach larger U.S. audiences, the IRA purchased advertisements from
  Facebook that promoted the IRA groups on the newsfeeds of U.S.
  audience members. According to Facebook the IRA purchased over 3,500
  advertisements , and the expenditures totaled approximately $100,000.

  
  

  
  
  

  And common sense simply suggests that when a group spends large amounts of money and labor on political advertisements, they're hoping to influence elections, and not simply trolling.

  
  


• 
  

  Did this group favor Trump?

  
  
  

  Yes, kind of. Their internal documents explicitly said not to criticize Trump:

  
  
  

  
  

  By 2016, internal IRA documents referred to support for the Trump campaign and opposition to candidate Clinton. For example, [redacted] directions to IRA operators [redacted] “use any opportunity to criticize Hillary [Clinton] and the rest
  (except Sanders and Trump – we support them.”

  
  

  
  
  

  This may have been more out of opposition to Clinton than positive views of Trump, though. This is supported by the inclusion of Sanders, as well as other internal information:

  
  
  

  
  

  the author criticized the "lower number of posts dedicated to
  criticizing Hillary Clinton" and reminded the Facebook specialist "it
  is imperative to intensify criticizing Hillary Clinton."

  
  

  
  
  

  That said, they seem to have warmed to Trump later:

  
  
  

  
  

  IRA-purchased advertisements referencing candidate Trump largely
  supported his campaign. The first known IRA advertisement explicitly
  endorsing the Trump Campaign was purchased on April 19, 2016.

  
  

  
  


• 
  

  Was the Russian government behind this?

  
  
  

  Probably. I doubt it can be proven for certain, but the circumstantial evidence is strong.

  
  
  

  First, some of the leadership had close ties to the Russian government.

  
  
  

  
  

  Two individuals headed the IRA's general management: its general
  director, Mikhail Bystrov, and its executive director, Mikhail
  Burchik.

  
  

  
  
  

  Bystrov was the head of a Russian national police organization before starting at the IRA.

  
  
  

  As mentioned, the funding came from Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin, who has close ties to Putin.

  
  
  

  None of this proves that the Russian government controlled or influenced the IRA. It is certainly possible that someone close to Putin would have views that aligned well with Putin's goals, and that they'd, and that they'd hire former top-level governmental employees because that's who they knew.

  
  
  

  But I think it provides a strong suggestion. A group run by strong Putin allies engaging in clandestine operations favorable to Putin, operating in a state where Putin has a great deal of authority and knowledge? It's like super PACs in the United States: when they're run by close friends or allies of a candidate and very much in line with that candidate, there's very likely to be collusion going on.

  
  

Do note that there more explicit statements in the report about the purpose and funding of the IRA. Often they were backed up with redacted references, such as to FBI cases.

Finally, a sanity check. Is it implausible that the Russian government would try to influence politics in other countries? Probably not: many other countries have engaged in similar operations, including the United States, Israel, China etc. It is very common for these groups to be NGOs with the approval of the government, not a government group. This gives the government plausible deniability. As such, the idea that the IRA would conduct political influence campaigns for Putin isn't unsual, but rather quite typical.

According to CNET, Mueller did find that Russia used a social media campaign to influence the US election in favor of Donald Trump. The campaign cost $35 million (the $100K the question is referring to is just the cost of ads):

Mueller's investigation also found that Russia was backing a $35 million operation to meddle with US politics through social media.

The money was spent between January 2016 and June 2018 and dedicated to spreading disinformation on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. The operation ran like a professional social media marketing campaign, with specific departments in search engine optimization and graphic design, along with a staff of hundreds who posted on social networks.

The group behind the effort, the Internet Research Agency, was directed to support Trump's campaign and attack Clinton, according to the investigation.

The operation also spent $60,000 on Facebook ads, $6,000 on Instagram ads and $18,000 on Twitter.

The details can be seen in the Mueller Report starting at page 14. A lot of specifics are redacted, but the report refers to and cites internal IRA documents as evidence, as well as statements by Facebook.

This is the best POLYGRAPH.info can do:

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded the next day, dismissing allegations of Russian interference.

"The report contains no proven evidence that Russia allegedly interfered in the election process in the United States,” the Russian news agency TASS quoted Peskov as saying.“As before, we do not accept such charges."

Peskov’s statement is misleading for several reasons. ... We find the claim, on its whole, to be “misleading,” due to the volume of evidence presented not only in special counsel filings, but also official reports that his report cites.