Weight the probability of a prediction based on historical accuracy












0












$begingroup$


I have six predictions from six different sources. Each prediction has a percent probability that the prediction will happen, as well as a historical accuracy percentage.



Here's a table of my problem:



enter image description here



This is the link to the table:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fioSBZiucRwsyeUD4foi2Bt2tBAUXSpv9Esvgksm_mk/edit?usp=sharing



An example of how to read this would be TF predicts the likelihood of a 0 is 63% and has been historically correct 43% of the time.



I want to find if the prediction should be 1 or 0 by weighting predictions with more historical accuracy. For example, TF predicts 0 with a probability of 63%. It has a historical accuracy of 43%. In contrast, LINE predicts 1 with a 81% probability and the same 73% historical accuracy. I want the overall prediction between these two sources to be 1 because LINE has a higher probability than TF and a higher historical accuracy.



So, my question is: how can I mathematically find the average prediction weighted by probability and historical accuracy?



Thanks in advance!






probability average







share|cite|improve this question









$endgroup$

















    0












    $begingroup$


    I have six predictions from six different sources. Each prediction has a percent probability that the prediction will happen, as well as a historical accuracy percentage.



    Here's a table of my problem:



    enter image description here



    This is the link to the table:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fioSBZiucRwsyeUD4foi2Bt2tBAUXSpv9Esvgksm_mk/edit?usp=sharing



    An example of how to read this would be TF predicts the likelihood of a 0 is 63% and has been historically correct 43% of the time.



    I want to find if the prediction should be 1 or 0 by weighting predictions with more historical accuracy. For example, TF predicts 0 with a probability of 63%. It has a historical accuracy of 43%. In contrast, LINE predicts 1 with a 81% probability and the same 73% historical accuracy. I want the overall prediction between these two sources to be 1 because LINE has a higher probability than TF and a higher historical accuracy.



    So, my question is: how can I mathematically find the average prediction weighted by probability and historical accuracy?



    Thanks in advance!






    probability average







    share|cite|improve this question









    $endgroup$















      0












      0








      0





      $begingroup$


      I have six predictions from six different sources. Each prediction has a percent probability that the prediction will happen, as well as a historical accuracy percentage.



      Here's a table of my problem:



      enter image description here



      This is the link to the table:
      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fioSBZiucRwsyeUD4foi2Bt2tBAUXSpv9Esvgksm_mk/edit?usp=sharing



      An example of how to read this would be TF predicts the likelihood of a 0 is 63% and has been historically correct 43% of the time.



      I want to find if the prediction should be 1 or 0 by weighting predictions with more historical accuracy. For example, TF predicts 0 with a probability of 63%. It has a historical accuracy of 43%. In contrast, LINE predicts 1 with a 81% probability and the same 73% historical accuracy. I want the overall prediction between these two sources to be 1 because LINE has a higher probability than TF and a higher historical accuracy.



      So, my question is: how can I mathematically find the average prediction weighted by probability and historical accuracy?



      Thanks in advance!






      probability average







      share|cite|improve this question









      $endgroup$




      I have six predictions from six different sources. Each prediction has a percent probability that the prediction will happen, as well as a historical accuracy percentage.



      Here's a table of my problem:



      enter image description here



      This is the link to the table:
      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fioSBZiucRwsyeUD4foi2Bt2tBAUXSpv9Esvgksm_mk/edit?usp=sharing



      An example of how to read this would be TF predicts the likelihood of a 0 is 63% and has been historically correct 43% of the time.



      I want to find if the prediction should be 1 or 0 by weighting predictions with more historical accuracy. For example, TF predicts 0 with a probability of 63%. It has a historical accuracy of 43%. In contrast, LINE predicts 1 with a 81% probability and the same 73% historical accuracy. I want the overall prediction between these two sources to be 1 because LINE has a higher probability than TF and a higher historical accuracy.



      So, my question is: how can I mathematically find the average prediction weighted by probability and historical accuracy?



      Thanks in advance!






      probability average




      probability average






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      asked Dec 2 '18 at 22:04









      Malachi BazarMalachi Bazar

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          $begingroup$

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean
          Above is reference. The basic formula is $p=frac{sum p_ia_i}{sum a_i}$. Where $p$ is the probability you want and $p_i,a_i$ are the individual probabilities and accuracy.






          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$













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            $begingroup$

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean
            Above is reference. The basic formula is $p=frac{sum p_ia_i}{sum a_i}$. Where $p$ is the probability you want and $p_i,a_i$ are the individual probabilities and accuracy.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$


















              1












              $begingroup$

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean
              Above is reference. The basic formula is $p=frac{sum p_ia_i}{sum a_i}$. Where $p$ is the probability you want and $p_i,a_i$ are the individual probabilities and accuracy.






              share|cite|improve this answer









              $endgroup$
















                1












                1








                1





                $begingroup$

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean
                Above is reference. The basic formula is $p=frac{sum p_ia_i}{sum a_i}$. Where $p$ is the probability you want and $p_i,a_i$ are the individual probabilities and accuracy.






                share|cite|improve this answer









                $endgroup$



                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean
                Above is reference. The basic formula is $p=frac{sum p_ia_i}{sum a_i}$. Where $p$ is the probability you want and $p_i,a_i$ are the individual probabilities and accuracy.







                share|cite|improve this answer












                share|cite|improve this answer



                share|cite|improve this answer










                answered Dec 2 '18 at 22:59









                herb steinbergherb steinberg

                2,5732310




                2,5732310






























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