Weight the probability of a prediction based on historical accuracy
$begingroup$
I have six predictions from six different sources. Each prediction has a percent probability that the prediction will happen, as well as a historical accuracy percentage.
Here's a table of my problem:
This is the link to the table:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fioSBZiucRwsyeUD4foi2Bt2tBAUXSpv9Esvgksm_mk/edit?usp=sharing
An example of how to read this would be TF predicts the likelihood of a 0 is 63% and has been historically correct 43% of the time.
I want to find if the prediction should be 1 or 0 by weighting predictions with more historical accuracy. For example, TF predicts 0 with a probability of 63%. It has a historical accuracy of 43%. In contrast, LINE predicts 1 with a 81% probability and the same 73% historical accuracy. I want the overall prediction between these two sources to be 1 because LINE has a higher probability than TF and a higher historical accuracy.
So, my question is: how can I mathematically find the average prediction weighted by probability and historical accuracy?
Thanks in advance!
probability average
asked Dec 2 '18 at 22:04
Malachi BazarMalachi Bazar
1033
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I have six predictions from six different sources. Each prediction has a percent probability that the prediction will happen, as well as a historical accuracy percentage.
Here's a table of my problem:
This is the link to the table:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fioSBZiucRwsyeUD4foi2Bt2tBAUXSpv9Esvgksm_mk/edit?usp=sharing
An example of how to read this would be TF predicts the likelihood of a 0 is 63% and has been historically correct 43% of the time.
I want to find if the prediction should be 1 or 0 by weighting predictions with more historical accuracy. For example, TF predicts 0 with a probability of 63%. It has a historical accuracy of 43%. In contrast, LINE predicts 1 with a 81% probability and the same 73% historical accuracy. I want the overall prediction between these two sources to be 1 because LINE has a higher probability than TF and a higher historical accuracy.
So, my question is: how can I mathematically find the average prediction weighted by probability and historical accuracy?
Thanks in advance!
probability average
asked Dec 2 '18 at 22:04
Malachi BazarMalachi Bazar
1033
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I have six predictions from six different sources. Each prediction has a percent probability that the prediction will happen, as well as a historical accuracy percentage.
Here's a table of my problem:
This is the link to the table:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fioSBZiucRwsyeUD4foi2Bt2tBAUXSpv9Esvgksm_mk/edit?usp=sharing
An example of how to read this would be TF predicts the likelihood of a 0 is 63% and has been historically correct 43% of the time.
I want to find if the prediction should be 1 or 0 by weighting predictions with more historical accuracy. For example, TF predicts 0 with a probability of 63%. It has a historical accuracy of 43%. In contrast, LINE predicts 1 with a 81% probability and the same 73% historical accuracy. I want the overall prediction between these two sources to be 1 because LINE has a higher probability than TF and a higher historical accuracy.
So, my question is: how can I mathematically find the average prediction weighted by probability and historical accuracy?
Thanks in advance!
probability average
asked Dec 2 '18 at 22:04
Malachi BazarMalachi Bazar
1033
$endgroup$
I have six predictions from six different sources. Each prediction has a percent probability that the prediction will happen, as well as a historical accuracy percentage.
Here's a table of my problem:
This is the link to the table:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fioSBZiucRwsyeUD4foi2Bt2tBAUXSpv9Esvgksm_mk/edit?usp=sharing
An example of how to read this would be TF predicts the likelihood of a 0 is 63% and has been historically correct 43% of the time.
I want to find if the prediction should be 1 or 0 by weighting predictions with more historical accuracy. For example, TF predicts 0 with a probability of 63%. It has a historical accuracy of 43%. In contrast, LINE predicts 1 with a 81% probability and the same 73% historical accuracy. I want the overall prediction between these two sources to be 1 because LINE has a higher probability than TF and a higher historical accuracy.
So, my question is: how can I mathematically find the average prediction weighted by probability and historical accuracy?
Thanks in advance!
probability average
probability average
asked Dec 2 '18 at 22:04
Malachi BazarMalachi Bazar
1033
asked Dec 2 '18 at 22:04
Malachi BazarMalachi Bazar
1033
asked Dec 2 '18 at 22:04
Malachi BazarMalachi Bazar
1033
asked Dec 2 '18 at 22:04
Malachi BazarMalachi Bazar
1033
asked Dec 2 '18 at 22:04
Malachi BazarMalachi Bazar
1033
1033
add a comment |
add a comment |
1 Answer
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$begingroup$
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean
Above is reference. The basic formula is $p=frac{sum p_ia_i}{sum a_i}$. Where $p$ is the probability you want and $p_i,a_i$ are the individual probabilities and accuracy.
answered Dec 2 '18 at 22:59
herb steinbergherb steinberg
2,5732310
$endgroup$
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1 Answer
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1 Answer
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$begingroup$
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean
Above is reference. The basic formula is $p=frac{sum p_ia_i}{sum a_i}$. Where $p$ is the probability you want and $p_i,a_i$ are the individual probabilities and accuracy.
answered Dec 2 '18 at 22:59
herb steinbergherb steinberg
2,5732310
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean
Above is reference. The basic formula is $p=frac{sum p_ia_i}{sum a_i}$. Where $p$ is the probability you want and $p_i,a_i$ are the individual probabilities and accuracy.
answered Dec 2 '18 at 22:59
herb steinbergherb steinberg
2,5732310
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean
Above is reference. The basic formula is $p=frac{sum p_ia_i}{sum a_i}$. Where $p$ is the probability you want and $p_i,a_i$ are the individual probabilities and accuracy.
answered Dec 2 '18 at 22:59
herb steinbergherb steinberg
2,5732310
$endgroup$
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean
Above is reference. The basic formula is $p=frac{sum p_ia_i}{sum a_i}$. Where $p$ is the probability you want and $p_i,a_i$ are the individual probabilities and accuracy.
answered Dec 2 '18 at 22:59
herb steinbergherb steinberg
2,5732310
answered Dec 2 '18 at 22:59
herb steinbergherb steinberg
2,5732310
answered Dec 2 '18 at 22:59
herb steinbergherb steinberg
2,5732310
answered Dec 2 '18 at 22:59
herb steinbergherb steinberg
2,5732310
2,5732310
add a comment |
add a comment |
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