Sum of independent Binomial random variables with different probabilities












12












$begingroup$


Suppose I have independent random variables $X_i$ which are distributed binomially via
$$X_i sim mathrm{Bin}(n_i, p_i)$$.



Are there relatively simple formulae or at least bounds for the distribution
$$S = sum_i X_i$$
available?










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$

















    12












    $begingroup$


    Suppose I have independent random variables $X_i$ which are distributed binomially via
    $$X_i sim mathrm{Bin}(n_i, p_i)$$.



    Are there relatively simple formulae or at least bounds for the distribution
    $$S = sum_i X_i$$
    available?










    share|cite|improve this question











    $endgroup$















      12












      12








      12


      4



      $begingroup$


      Suppose I have independent random variables $X_i$ which are distributed binomially via
      $$X_i sim mathrm{Bin}(n_i, p_i)$$.



      Are there relatively simple formulae or at least bounds for the distribution
      $$S = sum_i X_i$$
      available?










      share|cite|improve this question











      $endgroup$




      Suppose I have independent random variables $X_i$ which are distributed binomially via
      $$X_i sim mathrm{Bin}(n_i, p_i)$$.



      Are there relatively simple formulae or at least bounds for the distribution
      $$S = sum_i X_i$$
      available?







      probability-distributions random






      share|cite|improve this question















      share|cite|improve this question













      share|cite|improve this question




      share|cite|improve this question








      edited Dec 23 '16 at 23:45









      suomynonA

      5,65122557




      5,65122557










      asked Mar 30 '11 at 19:35









      LagerbaerLagerbaer

      2,10621826




      2,10621826






















          4 Answers
          4






          active

          oldest

          votes


















          9












          $begingroup$

          See this paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens).






          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$













          • $begingroup$
            I have the same question and i read the paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). unfortunately the approximations are not clear to me ( for example how are the probabilities in Table 2 calculated?)
            $endgroup$
            – May
            Dec 6 '12 at 22:33












          • $begingroup$
            @May: I had the same problem these days and I ended up using the explicit formula given in the linked paper. Should be fine if you don't have too many samples.
            $endgroup$
            – Michael Kuhn
            Dec 7 '12 at 20:26






          • 1




            $begingroup$
            @MichaelKuhn: so you used poisson binomial distribution function en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_binomial_distribution, unfortunately I have many samples and I need to use an approximation.
            $endgroup$
            – May
            Dec 11 '12 at 0:16












          • $begingroup$
            @May: These seems to be an R package for this distribution: cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poibin/poibin.pdf
            $endgroup$
            – Michael Kuhn
            Dec 11 '12 at 9:09






          • 1




            $begingroup$
            Page Not Found ...
            $endgroup$
            – Dor
            Sep 13 '15 at 0:30



















          4












          $begingroup$

          This answer provides an R implementation of the explicit formula from the paper linked in the accepted answer (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). (This code can in fact be used to combine any two independent probability distributions):



          # explicitly combine two probability distributions, expecting a vector of 
          # probabilities (first element = count 0)
          combine.distributions <- function(a, b) {

          # because of the following computation, make a matrix with more columns than rows
          if (length(a) < length(b)) {
          t <- a
          a <- b
          b <- t
          }

          # explicitly multiply the probability distributions
          m <- a %*% t(b)

          # initialized the final result, element 1 = count 0
          result <- rep(0, length(a)+length(b)-1)

          # add the probabilities, always adding to the next subsequent slice
          # of the result vector
          for (i in 1:nrow(m)) {
          result[i:(ncol(m)+i-1)] <- result[i:(ncol(m)+i-1)] + m[i,]
          }

          result
          }

          a <- dbinom(0:1000, 1000, 0.5)
          b <- dbinom(0:2000, 2000, 0.9)

          ab <- combine.distributions(a, b)
          ab.df <- data.frame( N = 0:(length(ab)-1), p = ab)

          plot(ab.df$N, ab.df$p, type="l")





          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$





















            3












            $begingroup$

            One short answer is that a normal approximation still works well as long as the variance $sigma^2 = sum n_i p_i(1-p_i)$ is not too small. Compute the average $mu = sum n_i p_i$ and the variance, and approximate $S$ by $N(mu,sigma)$.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$













            • $begingroup$
              Unfortunately, I cannot say anything about the Variance. In what direction would the normal approximation go?
              $endgroup$
              – Lagerbaer
              Mar 30 '11 at 22:31






            • 1




              $begingroup$
              Do you mean, "is the normal approximation an overestimate or an underestimate?" That depends on the range of values you are considering. Both distributions have total mass $1$.
              $endgroup$
              – Douglas Zare
              Mar 30 '11 at 23:29










            • $begingroup$
              I'd be interested in an estimate on the expected value.
              $endgroup$
              – Lagerbaer
              Mar 31 '11 at 3:03










            • $begingroup$
              To use a normal approximation, you have to know the mean and variance. (To use the more complicated approximations in the paper PEV cited, you need more information, such as the first 4 moments.) If you don't know the expected value, then what do you know about these binomial summands?
              $endgroup$
              – Douglas Zare
              Apr 3 '11 at 4:41












            • $begingroup$
              I know $n_i$ and $p_i$ of each of the summands, and hence I know the expected value and variance of each of the summands.
              $endgroup$
              – Lagerbaer
              Apr 3 '11 at 4:44



















            2












            $begingroup$

            It is possible to get a Chernoff bound using the standard moment generating function method:
            $$
            begin{align}
            Pr[Sge s]
            &le E[exp[t sum_i X_i]]exp(-st)
            \&= expleft(sum_i 1 + (e^t-1) p_iright) exp(-st)
            \&le expleft(sum_i exp((e^t-1) p_i)-stright)
            \&= expleft(s-sum_ip_i-slogfrac{s}{sum_i p_i}right)
            end{align},
            $$

            where we took $t=log(s/sum_ip_i)$.
            This is basically equal to the standard Chernoff bound for equal probabilities, just replaced with the sum (or average if you set $s=n s'$.)



            Here we (surprisingly) used the inequality $1+xle e^x$, but a slightly stronger bound may be possible without it. It'll just be much more messy.



            Another way to look at the bound is that we bound each variable with a poisson distribution with the same mean.






            share|cite|improve this answer











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              4 Answers
              4






              active

              oldest

              votes








              4 Answers
              4






              active

              oldest

              votes









              active

              oldest

              votes






              active

              oldest

              votes









              9












              $begingroup$

              See this paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens).






              share|cite|improve this answer









              $endgroup$













              • $begingroup$
                I have the same question and i read the paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). unfortunately the approximations are not clear to me ( for example how are the probabilities in Table 2 calculated?)
                $endgroup$
                – May
                Dec 6 '12 at 22:33












              • $begingroup$
                @May: I had the same problem these days and I ended up using the explicit formula given in the linked paper. Should be fine if you don't have too many samples.
                $endgroup$
                – Michael Kuhn
                Dec 7 '12 at 20:26






              • 1




                $begingroup$
                @MichaelKuhn: so you used poisson binomial distribution function en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_binomial_distribution, unfortunately I have many samples and I need to use an approximation.
                $endgroup$
                – May
                Dec 11 '12 at 0:16












              • $begingroup$
                @May: These seems to be an R package for this distribution: cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poibin/poibin.pdf
                $endgroup$
                – Michael Kuhn
                Dec 11 '12 at 9:09






              • 1




                $begingroup$
                Page Not Found ...
                $endgroup$
                – Dor
                Sep 13 '15 at 0:30
















              9












              $begingroup$

              See this paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens).






              share|cite|improve this answer









              $endgroup$













              • $begingroup$
                I have the same question and i read the paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). unfortunately the approximations are not clear to me ( for example how are the probabilities in Table 2 calculated?)
                $endgroup$
                – May
                Dec 6 '12 at 22:33












              • $begingroup$
                @May: I had the same problem these days and I ended up using the explicit formula given in the linked paper. Should be fine if you don't have too many samples.
                $endgroup$
                – Michael Kuhn
                Dec 7 '12 at 20:26






              • 1




                $begingroup$
                @MichaelKuhn: so you used poisson binomial distribution function en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_binomial_distribution, unfortunately I have many samples and I need to use an approximation.
                $endgroup$
                – May
                Dec 11 '12 at 0:16












              • $begingroup$
                @May: These seems to be an R package for this distribution: cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poibin/poibin.pdf
                $endgroup$
                – Michael Kuhn
                Dec 11 '12 at 9:09






              • 1




                $begingroup$
                Page Not Found ...
                $endgroup$
                – Dor
                Sep 13 '15 at 0:30














              9












              9








              9





              $begingroup$

              See this paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens).






              share|cite|improve this answer









              $endgroup$



              See this paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens).







              share|cite|improve this answer












              share|cite|improve this answer



              share|cite|improve this answer










              answered Mar 30 '11 at 19:40









              PrimeNumberPrimeNumber

              9,34953968




              9,34953968












              • $begingroup$
                I have the same question and i read the paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). unfortunately the approximations are not clear to me ( for example how are the probabilities in Table 2 calculated?)
                $endgroup$
                – May
                Dec 6 '12 at 22:33












              • $begingroup$
                @May: I had the same problem these days and I ended up using the explicit formula given in the linked paper. Should be fine if you don't have too many samples.
                $endgroup$
                – Michael Kuhn
                Dec 7 '12 at 20:26






              • 1




                $begingroup$
                @MichaelKuhn: so you used poisson binomial distribution function en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_binomial_distribution, unfortunately I have many samples and I need to use an approximation.
                $endgroup$
                – May
                Dec 11 '12 at 0:16












              • $begingroup$
                @May: These seems to be an R package for this distribution: cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poibin/poibin.pdf
                $endgroup$
                – Michael Kuhn
                Dec 11 '12 at 9:09






              • 1




                $begingroup$
                Page Not Found ...
                $endgroup$
                – Dor
                Sep 13 '15 at 0:30


















              • $begingroup$
                I have the same question and i read the paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). unfortunately the approximations are not clear to me ( for example how are the probabilities in Table 2 calculated?)
                $endgroup$
                – May
                Dec 6 '12 at 22:33












              • $begingroup$
                @May: I had the same problem these days and I ended up using the explicit formula given in the linked paper. Should be fine if you don't have too many samples.
                $endgroup$
                – Michael Kuhn
                Dec 7 '12 at 20:26






              • 1




                $begingroup$
                @MichaelKuhn: so you used poisson binomial distribution function en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_binomial_distribution, unfortunately I have many samples and I need to use an approximation.
                $endgroup$
                – May
                Dec 11 '12 at 0:16












              • $begingroup$
                @May: These seems to be an R package for this distribution: cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poibin/poibin.pdf
                $endgroup$
                – Michael Kuhn
                Dec 11 '12 at 9:09






              • 1




                $begingroup$
                Page Not Found ...
                $endgroup$
                – Dor
                Sep 13 '15 at 0:30
















              $begingroup$
              I have the same question and i read the paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). unfortunately the approximations are not clear to me ( for example how are the probabilities in Table 2 calculated?)
              $endgroup$
              – May
              Dec 6 '12 at 22:33






              $begingroup$
              I have the same question and i read the paper (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). unfortunately the approximations are not clear to me ( for example how are the probabilities in Table 2 calculated?)
              $endgroup$
              – May
              Dec 6 '12 at 22:33














              $begingroup$
              @May: I had the same problem these days and I ended up using the explicit formula given in the linked paper. Should be fine if you don't have too many samples.
              $endgroup$
              – Michael Kuhn
              Dec 7 '12 at 20:26




              $begingroup$
              @May: I had the same problem these days and I ended up using the explicit formula given in the linked paper. Should be fine if you don't have too many samples.
              $endgroup$
              – Michael Kuhn
              Dec 7 '12 at 20:26




              1




              1




              $begingroup$
              @MichaelKuhn: so you used poisson binomial distribution function en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_binomial_distribution, unfortunately I have many samples and I need to use an approximation.
              $endgroup$
              – May
              Dec 11 '12 at 0:16






              $begingroup$
              @MichaelKuhn: so you used poisson binomial distribution function en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_binomial_distribution, unfortunately I have many samples and I need to use an approximation.
              $endgroup$
              – May
              Dec 11 '12 at 0:16














              $begingroup$
              @May: These seems to be an R package for this distribution: cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poibin/poibin.pdf
              $endgroup$
              – Michael Kuhn
              Dec 11 '12 at 9:09




              $begingroup$
              @May: These seems to be an R package for this distribution: cran.r-project.org/web/packages/poibin/poibin.pdf
              $endgroup$
              – Michael Kuhn
              Dec 11 '12 at 9:09




              1




              1




              $begingroup$
              Page Not Found ...
              $endgroup$
              – Dor
              Sep 13 '15 at 0:30




              $begingroup$
              Page Not Found ...
              $endgroup$
              – Dor
              Sep 13 '15 at 0:30











              4












              $begingroup$

              This answer provides an R implementation of the explicit formula from the paper linked in the accepted answer (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). (This code can in fact be used to combine any two independent probability distributions):



              # explicitly combine two probability distributions, expecting a vector of 
              # probabilities (first element = count 0)
              combine.distributions <- function(a, b) {

              # because of the following computation, make a matrix with more columns than rows
              if (length(a) < length(b)) {
              t <- a
              a <- b
              b <- t
              }

              # explicitly multiply the probability distributions
              m <- a %*% t(b)

              # initialized the final result, element 1 = count 0
              result <- rep(0, length(a)+length(b)-1)

              # add the probabilities, always adding to the next subsequent slice
              # of the result vector
              for (i in 1:nrow(m)) {
              result[i:(ncol(m)+i-1)] <- result[i:(ncol(m)+i-1)] + m[i,]
              }

              result
              }

              a <- dbinom(0:1000, 1000, 0.5)
              b <- dbinom(0:2000, 2000, 0.9)

              ab <- combine.distributions(a, b)
              ab.df <- data.frame( N = 0:(length(ab)-1), p = ab)

              plot(ab.df$N, ab.df$p, type="l")





              share|cite|improve this answer









              $endgroup$


















                4












                $begingroup$

                This answer provides an R implementation of the explicit formula from the paper linked in the accepted answer (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). (This code can in fact be used to combine any two independent probability distributions):



                # explicitly combine two probability distributions, expecting a vector of 
                # probabilities (first element = count 0)
                combine.distributions <- function(a, b) {

                # because of the following computation, make a matrix with more columns than rows
                if (length(a) < length(b)) {
                t <- a
                a <- b
                b <- t
                }

                # explicitly multiply the probability distributions
                m <- a %*% t(b)

                # initialized the final result, element 1 = count 0
                result <- rep(0, length(a)+length(b)-1)

                # add the probabilities, always adding to the next subsequent slice
                # of the result vector
                for (i in 1:nrow(m)) {
                result[i:(ncol(m)+i-1)] <- result[i:(ncol(m)+i-1)] + m[i,]
                }

                result
                }

                a <- dbinom(0:1000, 1000, 0.5)
                b <- dbinom(0:2000, 2000, 0.9)

                ab <- combine.distributions(a, b)
                ab.df <- data.frame( N = 0:(length(ab)-1), p = ab)

                plot(ab.df$N, ab.df$p, type="l")





                share|cite|improve this answer









                $endgroup$
















                  4












                  4








                  4





                  $begingroup$

                  This answer provides an R implementation of the explicit formula from the paper linked in the accepted answer (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). (This code can in fact be used to combine any two independent probability distributions):



                  # explicitly combine two probability distributions, expecting a vector of 
                  # probabilities (first element = count 0)
                  combine.distributions <- function(a, b) {

                  # because of the following computation, make a matrix with more columns than rows
                  if (length(a) < length(b)) {
                  t <- a
                  a <- b
                  b <- t
                  }

                  # explicitly multiply the probability distributions
                  m <- a %*% t(b)

                  # initialized the final result, element 1 = count 0
                  result <- rep(0, length(a)+length(b)-1)

                  # add the probabilities, always adding to the next subsequent slice
                  # of the result vector
                  for (i in 1:nrow(m)) {
                  result[i:(ncol(m)+i-1)] <- result[i:(ncol(m)+i-1)] + m[i,]
                  }

                  result
                  }

                  a <- dbinom(0:1000, 1000, 0.5)
                  b <- dbinom(0:2000, 2000, 0.9)

                  ab <- combine.distributions(a, b)
                  ab.df <- data.frame( N = 0:(length(ab)-1), p = ab)

                  plot(ab.df$N, ab.df$p, type="l")





                  share|cite|improve this answer









                  $endgroup$



                  This answer provides an R implementation of the explicit formula from the paper linked in the accepted answer (The Distribution of a Sum of Binomial Random Variables by Ken Butler and Michael Stephens). (This code can in fact be used to combine any two independent probability distributions):



                  # explicitly combine two probability distributions, expecting a vector of 
                  # probabilities (first element = count 0)
                  combine.distributions <- function(a, b) {

                  # because of the following computation, make a matrix with more columns than rows
                  if (length(a) < length(b)) {
                  t <- a
                  a <- b
                  b <- t
                  }

                  # explicitly multiply the probability distributions
                  m <- a %*% t(b)

                  # initialized the final result, element 1 = count 0
                  result <- rep(0, length(a)+length(b)-1)

                  # add the probabilities, always adding to the next subsequent slice
                  # of the result vector
                  for (i in 1:nrow(m)) {
                  result[i:(ncol(m)+i-1)] <- result[i:(ncol(m)+i-1)] + m[i,]
                  }

                  result
                  }

                  a <- dbinom(0:1000, 1000, 0.5)
                  b <- dbinom(0:2000, 2000, 0.9)

                  ab <- combine.distributions(a, b)
                  ab.df <- data.frame( N = 0:(length(ab)-1), p = ab)

                  plot(ab.df$N, ab.df$p, type="l")






                  share|cite|improve this answer












                  share|cite|improve this answer



                  share|cite|improve this answer










                  answered Dec 13 '12 at 10:03









                  Michael KuhnMichael Kuhn

                  1412




                  1412























                      3












                      $begingroup$

                      One short answer is that a normal approximation still works well as long as the variance $sigma^2 = sum n_i p_i(1-p_i)$ is not too small. Compute the average $mu = sum n_i p_i$ and the variance, and approximate $S$ by $N(mu,sigma)$.






                      share|cite|improve this answer









                      $endgroup$













                      • $begingroup$
                        Unfortunately, I cannot say anything about the Variance. In what direction would the normal approximation go?
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Mar 30 '11 at 22:31






                      • 1




                        $begingroup$
                        Do you mean, "is the normal approximation an overestimate or an underestimate?" That depends on the range of values you are considering. Both distributions have total mass $1$.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Douglas Zare
                        Mar 30 '11 at 23:29










                      • $begingroup$
                        I'd be interested in an estimate on the expected value.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Mar 31 '11 at 3:03










                      • $begingroup$
                        To use a normal approximation, you have to know the mean and variance. (To use the more complicated approximations in the paper PEV cited, you need more information, such as the first 4 moments.) If you don't know the expected value, then what do you know about these binomial summands?
                        $endgroup$
                        – Douglas Zare
                        Apr 3 '11 at 4:41












                      • $begingroup$
                        I know $n_i$ and $p_i$ of each of the summands, and hence I know the expected value and variance of each of the summands.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Apr 3 '11 at 4:44
















                      3












                      $begingroup$

                      One short answer is that a normal approximation still works well as long as the variance $sigma^2 = sum n_i p_i(1-p_i)$ is not too small. Compute the average $mu = sum n_i p_i$ and the variance, and approximate $S$ by $N(mu,sigma)$.






                      share|cite|improve this answer









                      $endgroup$













                      • $begingroup$
                        Unfortunately, I cannot say anything about the Variance. In what direction would the normal approximation go?
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Mar 30 '11 at 22:31






                      • 1




                        $begingroup$
                        Do you mean, "is the normal approximation an overestimate or an underestimate?" That depends on the range of values you are considering. Both distributions have total mass $1$.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Douglas Zare
                        Mar 30 '11 at 23:29










                      • $begingroup$
                        I'd be interested in an estimate on the expected value.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Mar 31 '11 at 3:03










                      • $begingroup$
                        To use a normal approximation, you have to know the mean and variance. (To use the more complicated approximations in the paper PEV cited, you need more information, such as the first 4 moments.) If you don't know the expected value, then what do you know about these binomial summands?
                        $endgroup$
                        – Douglas Zare
                        Apr 3 '11 at 4:41












                      • $begingroup$
                        I know $n_i$ and $p_i$ of each of the summands, and hence I know the expected value and variance of each of the summands.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Apr 3 '11 at 4:44














                      3












                      3








                      3





                      $begingroup$

                      One short answer is that a normal approximation still works well as long as the variance $sigma^2 = sum n_i p_i(1-p_i)$ is not too small. Compute the average $mu = sum n_i p_i$ and the variance, and approximate $S$ by $N(mu,sigma)$.






                      share|cite|improve this answer









                      $endgroup$



                      One short answer is that a normal approximation still works well as long as the variance $sigma^2 = sum n_i p_i(1-p_i)$ is not too small. Compute the average $mu = sum n_i p_i$ and the variance, and approximate $S$ by $N(mu,sigma)$.







                      share|cite|improve this answer












                      share|cite|improve this answer



                      share|cite|improve this answer










                      answered Mar 30 '11 at 20:09









                      Douglas ZareDouglas Zare

                      2,7951315




                      2,7951315












                      • $begingroup$
                        Unfortunately, I cannot say anything about the Variance. In what direction would the normal approximation go?
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Mar 30 '11 at 22:31






                      • 1




                        $begingroup$
                        Do you mean, "is the normal approximation an overestimate or an underestimate?" That depends on the range of values you are considering. Both distributions have total mass $1$.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Douglas Zare
                        Mar 30 '11 at 23:29










                      • $begingroup$
                        I'd be interested in an estimate on the expected value.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Mar 31 '11 at 3:03










                      • $begingroup$
                        To use a normal approximation, you have to know the mean and variance. (To use the more complicated approximations in the paper PEV cited, you need more information, such as the first 4 moments.) If you don't know the expected value, then what do you know about these binomial summands?
                        $endgroup$
                        – Douglas Zare
                        Apr 3 '11 at 4:41












                      • $begingroup$
                        I know $n_i$ and $p_i$ of each of the summands, and hence I know the expected value and variance of each of the summands.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Apr 3 '11 at 4:44


















                      • $begingroup$
                        Unfortunately, I cannot say anything about the Variance. In what direction would the normal approximation go?
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Mar 30 '11 at 22:31






                      • 1




                        $begingroup$
                        Do you mean, "is the normal approximation an overestimate or an underestimate?" That depends on the range of values you are considering. Both distributions have total mass $1$.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Douglas Zare
                        Mar 30 '11 at 23:29










                      • $begingroup$
                        I'd be interested in an estimate on the expected value.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Mar 31 '11 at 3:03










                      • $begingroup$
                        To use a normal approximation, you have to know the mean and variance. (To use the more complicated approximations in the paper PEV cited, you need more information, such as the first 4 moments.) If you don't know the expected value, then what do you know about these binomial summands?
                        $endgroup$
                        – Douglas Zare
                        Apr 3 '11 at 4:41












                      • $begingroup$
                        I know $n_i$ and $p_i$ of each of the summands, and hence I know the expected value and variance of each of the summands.
                        $endgroup$
                        – Lagerbaer
                        Apr 3 '11 at 4:44
















                      $begingroup$
                      Unfortunately, I cannot say anything about the Variance. In what direction would the normal approximation go?
                      $endgroup$
                      – Lagerbaer
                      Mar 30 '11 at 22:31




                      $begingroup$
                      Unfortunately, I cannot say anything about the Variance. In what direction would the normal approximation go?
                      $endgroup$
                      – Lagerbaer
                      Mar 30 '11 at 22:31




                      1




                      1




                      $begingroup$
                      Do you mean, "is the normal approximation an overestimate or an underestimate?" That depends on the range of values you are considering. Both distributions have total mass $1$.
                      $endgroup$
                      – Douglas Zare
                      Mar 30 '11 at 23:29




                      $begingroup$
                      Do you mean, "is the normal approximation an overestimate or an underestimate?" That depends on the range of values you are considering. Both distributions have total mass $1$.
                      $endgroup$
                      – Douglas Zare
                      Mar 30 '11 at 23:29












                      $begingroup$
                      I'd be interested in an estimate on the expected value.
                      $endgroup$
                      – Lagerbaer
                      Mar 31 '11 at 3:03




                      $begingroup$
                      I'd be interested in an estimate on the expected value.
                      $endgroup$
                      – Lagerbaer
                      Mar 31 '11 at 3:03












                      $begingroup$
                      To use a normal approximation, you have to know the mean and variance. (To use the more complicated approximations in the paper PEV cited, you need more information, such as the first 4 moments.) If you don't know the expected value, then what do you know about these binomial summands?
                      $endgroup$
                      – Douglas Zare
                      Apr 3 '11 at 4:41






                      $begingroup$
                      To use a normal approximation, you have to know the mean and variance. (To use the more complicated approximations in the paper PEV cited, you need more information, such as the first 4 moments.) If you don't know the expected value, then what do you know about these binomial summands?
                      $endgroup$
                      – Douglas Zare
                      Apr 3 '11 at 4:41














                      $begingroup$
                      I know $n_i$ and $p_i$ of each of the summands, and hence I know the expected value and variance of each of the summands.
                      $endgroup$
                      – Lagerbaer
                      Apr 3 '11 at 4:44




                      $begingroup$
                      I know $n_i$ and $p_i$ of each of the summands, and hence I know the expected value and variance of each of the summands.
                      $endgroup$
                      – Lagerbaer
                      Apr 3 '11 at 4:44











                      2












                      $begingroup$

                      It is possible to get a Chernoff bound using the standard moment generating function method:
                      $$
                      begin{align}
                      Pr[Sge s]
                      &le E[exp[t sum_i X_i]]exp(-st)
                      \&= expleft(sum_i 1 + (e^t-1) p_iright) exp(-st)
                      \&le expleft(sum_i exp((e^t-1) p_i)-stright)
                      \&= expleft(s-sum_ip_i-slogfrac{s}{sum_i p_i}right)
                      end{align},
                      $$

                      where we took $t=log(s/sum_ip_i)$.
                      This is basically equal to the standard Chernoff bound for equal probabilities, just replaced with the sum (or average if you set $s=n s'$.)



                      Here we (surprisingly) used the inequality $1+xle e^x$, but a slightly stronger bound may be possible without it. It'll just be much more messy.



                      Another way to look at the bound is that we bound each variable with a poisson distribution with the same mean.






                      share|cite|improve this answer











                      $endgroup$


















                        2












                        $begingroup$

                        It is possible to get a Chernoff bound using the standard moment generating function method:
                        $$
                        begin{align}
                        Pr[Sge s]
                        &le E[exp[t sum_i X_i]]exp(-st)
                        \&= expleft(sum_i 1 + (e^t-1) p_iright) exp(-st)
                        \&le expleft(sum_i exp((e^t-1) p_i)-stright)
                        \&= expleft(s-sum_ip_i-slogfrac{s}{sum_i p_i}right)
                        end{align},
                        $$

                        where we took $t=log(s/sum_ip_i)$.
                        This is basically equal to the standard Chernoff bound for equal probabilities, just replaced with the sum (or average if you set $s=n s'$.)



                        Here we (surprisingly) used the inequality $1+xle e^x$, but a slightly stronger bound may be possible without it. It'll just be much more messy.



                        Another way to look at the bound is that we bound each variable with a poisson distribution with the same mean.






                        share|cite|improve this answer











                        $endgroup$
















                          2












                          2








                          2





                          $begingroup$

                          It is possible to get a Chernoff bound using the standard moment generating function method:
                          $$
                          begin{align}
                          Pr[Sge s]
                          &le E[exp[t sum_i X_i]]exp(-st)
                          \&= expleft(sum_i 1 + (e^t-1) p_iright) exp(-st)
                          \&le expleft(sum_i exp((e^t-1) p_i)-stright)
                          \&= expleft(s-sum_ip_i-slogfrac{s}{sum_i p_i}right)
                          end{align},
                          $$

                          where we took $t=log(s/sum_ip_i)$.
                          This is basically equal to the standard Chernoff bound for equal probabilities, just replaced with the sum (or average if you set $s=n s'$.)



                          Here we (surprisingly) used the inequality $1+xle e^x$, but a slightly stronger bound may be possible without it. It'll just be much more messy.



                          Another way to look at the bound is that we bound each variable with a poisson distribution with the same mean.






                          share|cite|improve this answer











                          $endgroup$



                          It is possible to get a Chernoff bound using the standard moment generating function method:
                          $$
                          begin{align}
                          Pr[Sge s]
                          &le E[exp[t sum_i X_i]]exp(-st)
                          \&= expleft(sum_i 1 + (e^t-1) p_iright) exp(-st)
                          \&le expleft(sum_i exp((e^t-1) p_i)-stright)
                          \&= expleft(s-sum_ip_i-slogfrac{s}{sum_i p_i}right)
                          end{align},
                          $$

                          where we took $t=log(s/sum_ip_i)$.
                          This is basically equal to the standard Chernoff bound for equal probabilities, just replaced with the sum (or average if you set $s=n s'$.)



                          Here we (surprisingly) used the inequality $1+xle e^x$, but a slightly stronger bound may be possible without it. It'll just be much more messy.



                          Another way to look at the bound is that we bound each variable with a poisson distribution with the same mean.







                          share|cite|improve this answer














                          share|cite|improve this answer



                          share|cite|improve this answer








                          edited Dec 22 '18 at 0:08

























                          answered Dec 21 '18 at 19:24









                          Thomas AhleThomas Ahle

                          1,5291323




                          1,5291323






























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